I. S. Skiter1, V. V. Derenhovskyi1, O. V. Mykhailov1, Ye. A. Menshenin1, O. B. Savchuk1, O. I. Trunov2
1 Institute for Safety Problems of Nuclear Power Plants, NAS of Ukraine, 36a, Kirova st., Chоrnobyl, 07270, Ukraine
2 Chernihiv Polytechnic National University, 95, Shevchenko st., Chernihiv, 14035, Ukraine
DOI: doi.org/10.31717/2311-8253.24.3.2
Abstract
The article presents an approach to the strategic analysis of the process of selecting nuclear power plant (NPP) construction sites based on fuzzy logic methods. The subject of the study is a comparative analysis of potential NPP construction sites. The object of the study is a methodology for systematic assessment of factors for analyzing NPP sites. The purpose of the study is to formalize the process of assessing the environment, its non-parametric factors, their classification by the degree of influence on the state of the research object and their impact on the decision-making process based on the use of fuzzy logic methods. The implementation of the method is based on expert assessments of groups of factors that determine the parameters of site evaluation. The method is based on the tools of fuzzy set theory: linguistic assessments of factors using triangular membership functions; Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) method for determining fuzzy importance coefficients of selected groups of factors of the proposed model; Center of Area (CoA) method for defuzzification of fuzzy triangular values; Fuzzy Simple Additive Weighting (SAW) method for ranking factors and selecting an effective strategic solution. For the strategic analysis of the state of NPP construction sites, a modified informative matrix for assessing the state of the system by J. Wilson was used. The following external system characteristics were selected for the study: a group of economic factors, a group of social factors, and a group of security factors. The group of experts conducted a fuzzy assessment of pairwise comparisons for the groups of factors and determined fuzzy estimates of the probabilities of the impact of external factors. The use of fuzzy linguistic estimates of the impact of external factors on the enterprise’s activities and fuzzy values of the probability of their realization allows us to build an improved J. Wilson matrix. Each factor under consideration is positioned in this matrix according to linguistic estimates. This makes it possible to visually present the distribution of the identified factors by the importance of influence and the probability of realization of this influence. The developed model for generalized assessment of factors for each site allows decision makers to evaluate and compare sites taking into account the degree of implementation of the relevant groups of factors. The direction of further research is to include criteria in the model that detail the selected groups of factors and determine the integral assessments of sites based on them.
Keywords: strategic analysis, NPP site selection, expert opinions, linguistic variables, fuzzy logic methods, factor analysis and evaluation, Wilson’s matrix, decision-making
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