T. D. Lev
Institute for Safety Problems of Nuclear Power Plants, NAS of Ukraine, 12, Lysohirska St., Kyiv, 03028, Ukraine
https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7558-2816
V. M. Piskun
Institute for Safety Problems of Nuclear Power Plants, NAS of Ukraine, 12, Lysohirska St., Kyiv, 03028, Ukraine
https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2574-528X
I. P. Shedemenko
Institute for Safety Problems of Nuclear Power Plants, NAS of Ukraine, 12, Lysohirska St., Kyiv, 03028, Ukraine
https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4075-8513
DOI: doi.org/10.31717/2311-8253.26.1.8
Abstract
A study and statistical analysis have been conducted on the use of various methods for calculating fire hazard weather indices (FWI, PPN) applied in Ukraine and the EU to assess and forecast fire hazard conditions based on open-access forecast and real-time meteorological data (COPERNICUS, CORDEX, ERA5, and NASA projects). The calculations of the FWI index were compared using data from climate models: CNRM-CM5 (France), MPI (Germany) and PPN indicators by V.G. Nesterov and its modifications, calculated by the author’s program for the period 2006−2035. Using the fire weather index (FWI), which was developed and is used in the Canadian and European fire forecast systems (CFFWIS, EFFIS), the most adequate global climate model version of the CORDEX project for the period 2006−2035 was selected and statistically confirmed. The most successful calculation methodology of the V.G. Nesterov method was selected. As a result of this comparison, the method (author V.A. Balabukh) was selected, officially adopted by the Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Center and used by us in the future for comparative assessment with the FWI —Fire Weather Index using different data sets. All prepared data on the annual number of cases with fire hazard class indicators for 3 regions for 30 years were analyzed and statistically processed by two methods: the UkrHMI method (author V.A. Balabukh), which is based on the V.G. Nesterov method, and the method of the Canadian Fire Forecast Service (EF). The results of the comparative analysis show that over a thirty-year period (2006−2035), using predictive meteorological data obtained using the global MPI model (FRN), there is a gradual increase in the annual number of cases with periods of a sharp increase or decrease in the annual number of cases calculated by the two methods.
Keywords: natural fires, fire hazard index, statistical analysis of fire characteristics, climate models, satellite information.
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