I. S. Skiter
Institute for Safety Problems of Nuclear Power Plants, NAS of Ukraine, 36a, Kirova st., Chornobyl, 07270, Ukraine
DOI: doi.org/10.31717/2311-8253.23.2.7
Abstract
The subject of the study is the New Safe Confinement. Its commissioning is the second stage of the task to transform the Shelter object into an ecologically safe system. Works on the implementation of the third stage require the election of scenarios for the Shelter object transformation into an ecologically safe system. Approaches to the selection of scenarios should be based on the development of a methodology for their comparative analysis. The object of this study is a complex system, and the development of a methodology for assessing scenarios should be based on the consideration of a set of qualitatively heterogeneous factors and indicators. Therefore, the task of creating a methodology for comparative analysis of scenarios requires, in addition to the analysis of technical, technological, economic, and financial indicators that will accompany the Shelter object transformation process, a systematic approach to assessing and comparing the states of the research object, decision-making and management methods. The presented research related to the systematic approach to the formation of a methodology for comparative analysis of scenarios for transforming the Shelter object into an ecologically safe system. Indicators and factors for assessing scenarios were identified and grouped according to environmental safety criteria. A systematic approach to the implementation of the scenario assessment methodology using three classes of methods is proposed. The systematic nature of determining the values of scenarios is realized by the stages of research. At the first stage of the analysis, a methodology for qualitative comparison of scenarios based on peer reviews is proposed. A multi-criteria optimization methodology for parametric detailing of scenario values and decision-making was proposed in the second stage. At the third stage of the systematic approach, an algorithm for constructing multifactor models for determining control parameters was developed.
Keywords: Shelter object, scenario analysis, systematic approach, expert methods, multi-criteria optimization methods, multifactor models.
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