T.D. Lev, V.M. Piskun, Yu. V. Yatsenko, I.P. Shedemenko
Institute for Safety Problems of Nuclear Power Plants, NAS of Ukraine, 12, Lysohirska st., Kyiv, 03028, Ukraine
DOI: doi.org/10.31717/2311-8253.24.3.6
Abstract
The spatio-temporal characteristics of natural fires on the territory of Ukrainian Polissia were studied, taking into account the influence of meteorological factors and local conditions of the area. A statistical analysis of the characteristics of forest fires on the territory of 6 regions, assigned by weather stations, was carried out, based on the processed data (total data for the month, year) on fires for the period from 2006 to 2022. The following was noted: 1) the annual number of fires increased by 3 times, and the burning area by 12 times, reaching in certain years from 825 km2 (2014, 2020) to 1,653 km2 (2015); 2) the largest number of fires was observed on the territory of the agricultural landscape, in general from 70% to 90% of the area of the region. Over a relatively short period (16 years), the dynamics of the growth of the annual sums of burned areas is noted. Extreme cases with the maximum number of ignition points (from 1,500 to 1,800) with an area of up to 100–120 km2 in the territory of the Korosten and Sarny weather stations are described with a detailed analysis of weather conditions. Copernicus data used: three global climate datasets, fire characteristics data and four fire danger indices to analyze the use of fire weather indicators to assess fire danger in extreme cases. The influence of meteorological conditions and the synoptic situation on the spread of fires in the territory free from forest massifs is described using the archive of synoptic maps for the European territory and modern technologies of geoinformation systems. The influence of large-scale natural factors and local conditions on the level of fire danger of the territory of the region under consideration is noted. The results of the executed research and the possibility of using weather indicators of fire danger, obtained using archival data or climate models, will allow improving estimates of secondary radioactive pollution of the environment due to forest fires in the Exclusion Zone.
Keywords: natural fires, fire danger index, statistical analysis of fire characteristics, climate models, satellite information, meteorological situation, radionuclides.
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